Friday, August 5, 2016 – 1:20:00 PM MDT
Today’s strong jobs report will naturally give credence to the economic bulls temporarily, but don’t be fooled, this report is a continuation of a slowing job market.
The economy actually lost 1 million (-1.03mm) jobs in July, but the seasonal adjustment brought that back into the positive; to +255 thousand. Seasonal adjustments are valid and we accept the +255k, but the point is that when the seasonal adjustment is more than 5 times the amount of the job gain, the adjustment is so great that you really need to look at multiple data points to get any clarity.
And so, in looking at the average of the last 12 months to eliminate the seasonality, the economy is generating about 200k (209k) new jobs on average per month, and more importantly, this metric has been trending lower since Q1 2015. While this is certainly not a recessionary number, it looks no different than the labor slowdowns preceding recessions of the past.